First quarter GDP revised lower

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Published Date 5/26/2022

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +16 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Housing: April Pending Home Sales Index changed -3.9% by vs. est. of -2.0%

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lower than expected (210K vs. est. of 215K), the more closely watched 4 week moving average increased to 206,750. Continuing Claims were higher than expected, 1.346M vs. est. of 1.310M

GDP: We got the first revision to the previously released 1st QTR GDP...the first time out of the gate in came in at -1.4%, the market was expecting an upward revision to -1.3% however, we actually got a downward revision to -1.5%. Prices Paid were revised upward from 8.0% to 8.1%

Central Banks: The Bank of Russia had to cut their interest rate by 300 BPS in an attempt to spark their economy that has been crushed due to sanctions.

The Fed: Kansas City Fed President Esther George has announced her retirement and will retire after 2022. Her Fed region is famous for creating/hosting the annual Jackson Hole, WY Economic Symposium. She joins another long term Fed President, Chicago's Charles Evans that will also leave at that same time - both will have turned 65.

Treasury Sales: We have our 7 year note auction at 1 pm ET.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are again treading water. Volatility has started low but will likely become moderate later in the day.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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