Published Date 2/29/2024
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
Mortgage rates are getting some support today. The MBS market improved by +18 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced low volatility yesterday.
Inflation: The Fed's key measure of Inflation, Core (ex food and energy) PCE increased by 0.4% which matched market expectations but was a pretty big jump in pace from December's 0.1%. YOY, it was up 2.8% versus estimates of 2.8%. The Headline PCE increased by 0.3% on a MOM basis and 2.4% on a YOY basis, both matched market expectations.
Incomes and Spending: We got a big beat in January Personal Incomes, up 1.0% versus estimates of only 0.4%, however most of that beat is due to dividends. Personal Spending hit 0.2% which matched expectations but was more than half December's pace of 0.7%.
Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were 215K versus estimates of 210K. The more closely watched four week moving average dropped to 212K. Continuing Claims were ugly, breaking above 1.9M, (1.905M) versus estimates of 1.874M.
Manufacturing: The February Chicago PMI cratered down to 44 versus estimates of 48.
The Fed: Today we will hear from Goolsbee, Bostic and Mester.
This morning markets are getting a small boost on the PCE data. Volatility has started high but should moderate later in the day.
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
Source: TBWSAll information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
First
Priority Home Loans is a DBA of Anchor Funding, Inc. NMLS #236419 &
1626581. California
Bureau of Real Estate,
Real
Estate Broker Number 01276087. Loans made or arranged pursuant
to the
California Department of Business Oversight. California Finance Lenders Law
license number 603 L293.
NMLS: 220937
First Priority Home Loans
891 Kuhn Drive #204, Chula Vista CA
Company NMLS: 236419
Office: 619-323-2066
Cell: 619-208-6499
Email: andrefunds4u@sbcglobal.net
NMLS: 220937
Cell: 619-208-6499
5/2/2024
“Our sofa would fit perfectly there.” “How soon do they need to move?” “Would t... view more
5/2/2024
April Challenger Job Cuts dropped from 90K in March down to 65K in April but sti... view more
5/1/2024
Its May Day and the FOMC meeting. Rates began unchanged from yesterday’s selling... view more
4/30/2024
You don’t simply buy a home these days. You compete for one. The home-buying sea... view more
4/29/2024
These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this we... view more
4/26/2024
It’s the nightmare we think only happens in the movies. “We have to pack,” says ... view more
4/25/2024
When it comes to curb appeal, there are things you can do to update your house. ... view more
4/25/2024
The preliminary 1st QTR GDP was much lighter than expected, showing a QoQ increa... view more