Published Date 4/1/2024
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
Mortgage rates are moving higher today. The MBS market worsened by -12 bps last week. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility last week.
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Jobs, 2) The Fed and 3) Manufacturing.
1) Jobs: We get a ton of job and wage related data all week culminating in Big Jobs Friday. The bond market will be very sensitive to the pace of wage increases and number of job additions.
04/01 ISM Manufacturing - Employment Index
04/02 JOLTS
04/03 ADP Payrolls and ISM Services - Employment Index
04/04 Challenger Job Cuts, Initial Weekly Jobless Claims
04/05 Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Average Weekly Hours, U6 Underemployment Rate, Labor force Participation Rate.
2) The Fed: We have a packed calendar for Fed speeches this week, the bond market will be keen to see if Waller and Bostic's sentiment is an outlier or main stream among the Fed.
04/01 Cook
04/02 Bowman, Daly, Williams and Mester
04/03 Powell, Bowman, Goolsbee, Barr and Kugler
04/04 Harker, Barkin, Kashkari
04/05 Logan, Bowman
3) Manufacturing: After some very disappointing regional manufacturing data last week, we will get the national ISM Manufacturing on Monday and Factory Orders on Tuesday.
This morning markets are taking a hit due to last week's PCE revisions. Volatility has started high and will continue to be high as we get data this week.
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
Source: TBWSAll information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
First
Priority Home Loans is a DBA of Anchor Funding, Inc. NMLS #236419 &
1626581. California
Bureau of Real Estate,
Real
Estate Broker Number 01276087. Loans made or arranged pursuant
to the
California Department of Business Oversight. California Finance Lenders Law
license number 603 L293.
NMLS: 220937
First Priority Home Loans
891 Kuhn Drive #204, Chula Vista CA
Company NMLS: 236419
Office: 619-323-2066
Cell: 619-208-6499
Email: andrefunds4u@sbcglobal.net
NMLS: 220937
Cell: 619-208-6499
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