Volatility spikes on GDP data

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Published Date 4/25/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Higher

Mortgage rates are moving higher today. The MBS market worsened by -8 bps yesterday. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Higher

Report Card: The preliminary 1st QTR GDP was much lighter than expected, showing a QoQ increase of 1.6% which was well below the market consensus of 2.5%. However, inflation reared its ugly head with prices paid rising from 2.0% in the 4th QTR to 3.7% in the 1st QTR.

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lower than expected, 207K versus 214K. The 4 week moving average dropped to 213K. Continuing Claims dipped below 1.8M, 1.781M versus estimates of 1.810M.

Housing: We will get the March Pending Home Sales Index at 10 am.

Treasury Auction: We have our 7 year note auction at 1 pm today.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are very concerned about the GDP report. Volatility has started high with markets also concerned about tomorrow's PCE report.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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