ADP jobs data exceed expectations by 140k

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Published Date 10/6/2021

Last night the 10 yr. note increased to 1.57% but when US trading began the note dropped back to 1.54% +1 bp from yesterday; by 9 am ET unchanged as were the MBS prices.

The news for today, at 8:15 am ADP reported its Sept private jobs, estimates were for an increase of 428K, as reported jobs increased 568K but August revised lower to 340K from 374K. There wasn’t much immediate reaction to the better number, with stocks trading soft it countered the better jobs, and ADP isn’t as impacting as it used to be with too many deviations from the BLS jobs data that will be released on Friday.

Weekly MBA mortgage applications last week -6.9%, purchase apps -2.0% while re-finance apps declined 10% from week before.

The stock market continuing to swing in wide ranges, yesterday the DJIA +312, in early trading this morning down 291.

Dems working hard to come up with a spending bill that moderates in the party are willing to accept. It is no shock that the $3.5 trillion wish list isn’t going to happen, even the President has said it will have to be pared down if there is any chance the spending bill will pass. The question Democrats must now contend with is whether to try to squeeze in funding for a broader array of programs by shortening their duration, or spending on fewer programs for a longer period.

On the US debt limit; still no resolution with the calendar ticking to Oct 18th when Treasury will begin to default on US debt payments. Not to worry though, something will happen, neither political party wants to face a default. So far Republicans are leaving it to Dems to pass legislation to extend the debt ceiling.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -254, NASDAQ -141, S&P -38. 10 yr. 1.52% -1 bp. FNMA 2.5 30 yr. coupon unchanged from yesterday but down 21 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

As long as stocks are under pressure today the bond and mortgage markets are likely to sit rather quietly. Friday’s employment report looms. If the stock indexes reverse and begin to improve the support for treasuries will ebb and MBS prices will weaken.

PRICES @ 9:30 AM

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