Market volatility remains high

___

Published Date 5/5/2022

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Higher

Mortgage rates are moving higher today. The MBS market improved by +60 bps yesterday. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Higher

Jobs: The April Challenger Grey Job Cuts showed a very low level of major corporations announcing job cuts with only 24,268. Initial Weekly Jobless Claims hit 200K after many weeks trending below that level. The more closely watched 4 week moving average moved upward to 188K. Continuing Claims were lower than expected (1.380M vs. est. of 1.400M).

Productivity: The 1st QTR Non Farm Productivity data went right into the toilet, crashing -7.5% vs. est. of -5.4% (4th QTR was a gain of 6.3%). This was due to Unit Labor Costs SURGING by 11.6%!

Central Banks: The Bank of England raised their key interest rate by 25 BPS to 1.00%. While this was widely expected, the vote was 6-3 with the 3 votes wanting a larger 50BPS hike. There forecasts point to inflation at over 10% by October.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are making up for some of the gains yesterday. Volatility is relatively high as markets recover from yesterday's big movements.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.