Initial Weekly Jobless Claims continue to beat expectations

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Published Date 9/22/2022

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Higher

Mortgage rates are moving higher today. The MBS market improved by +10 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Higher

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lower than expected (213K vs. est. 220K) plus the prior week was revised lower to 208K. This brings the more closely watched 4 week moving average down to 216,750. Continuing Claims dropped to 1.379M vs. est. of 1.400M.

Leading Economic Indicators: The August summary of other indexes continued to show weakness, dropping by -0.3% which makes the 6th straight month of declines.

Central Banks: The Bank of England increased their key interest rate by 50BPS which was widely expected, the vote was 9-0 to raise the rates with a couple of votes wanting to raise it more. (5 voted for 50bps, 3 voted for 75bps, and 1 voted for 25bps). The Swiss National Bank finally has an interest rate above zero for the first time in a few years, increasing their key rate by 75BPS to 0.25%. The Bank of Japan continues to keep their key interest rate at -0.10% at their meeting.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are under very heavy pressure. Volatility is extremely high.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Atiba Thompson

President

NMLS: 376247

470 OLDE WORTHINGTON RD, WESTERVILLE, OH 43082

470 OLDE WORTHINGTON RD,, WESTERVILLE OH 43082

Company NMLS: 796590

Office: 614-578-1623

Email: atiba@orefc.com

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