The Consumer Price Index beats expectations

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Published Date 1/11/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are leaning lower today. The MBS market changed by 0 bps yesterday. This was not enough to change mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Nation: The December inflation index CPI was hotter than expected with headline CPI MOM up 0.3% versus estimates of 0.2% and YOY up 3.4% versus estimates of 3.1%. Core (ex food and energy) was up 0.3% on a MOM basis versus estimates of 0.3% and YOY, it was up 3.9% versus estimates of 3.8%.

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lower than expected, 202K versus estimates of 210K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average dropped to 207,750. Continuing Claims remain stubbornly above 1.8M with a reading of 1.834M.

Treasury Auction: We have the most important auction of the week with the 30 year Treasury bond auction at 1 pm ET.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets were under heavy pressure but bounced back. Volatility has started high as markets work through the inflation data.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Paramount Residential Mortgage Group