Three things that could impact rates this week


Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Higher

Mortgage rates are moving higher today. The MBS market worsened by -5 bps last week. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) the Fed, 2) Treasury Auction and 3) Domestic News.

1) The Fed: The bond market continues to react to Powell's comments on Wednesday which were reinforced by his 60 Minutes Interview which was taped before the big jobs data beat. This week we have a lot of bobble heads speaking and the bond market will react in tandem with their forward guidance.

02/05 Goolsbee, Kashkari, Bostic

02/06 Mester, Collins and Harker

02/07 Kugler, Collins, Barkin, Bowman

02/08 Barkin

2) Treasury Auction: We have a lot debt that will be dumped into the marketplace this week. Thursday's 30Y auction can have a strong impact on rates.

02/06 3 year note

02/07 10 year note

02/08 30 year bond

3) Domestic News: This week's releases that will get the most attention from bond traders: ISM Non Manufacturing, Consumer Credit.

This week's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are pushing rates higher. Volatility has started high but will likely moderate later in the week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Paramount Residential Mortgage Group
Corporate NMLS ID:  75243
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Brian Voytko

Mortgage Advisor

NMLS: #437292

The Mortgage Whiz

Company NMLS: 338923

Cell: 215-407-3832




Brian Voytko


Mortgage Advisor

NMLS: #437292

Cell: 215-407-3832

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