Initial Weekly Jobless Claims lower than expected

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Published Date 2/22/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -17 bps yesterday. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lower than expected, 201K versus estimates of 218K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average dropped to 215K. Continuing Claims were 1.862M versus estimates of 1.885M.

Report Card: The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank issued their January Chicago Fed National Activity Index which showed a national economic contraction of -0.3 versus December's revised pace of +0.2.

The Fed: Today we will hear from Jefferson and Harker.

Housing: We will get Existing Home Sales at 10 am ET, market expectations are for an annualized pace of 3.97M units.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets were under some initial pressure due to the jobs data. Volatility has started at moderate levels with very choppy movements.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Surefire Mortgage Group (dba Home Front Mortgage) is an equal housing lender.

Surefire Mortgage Group operates mortgage companies under separate NMLS Numbers and licenses in different states. Please search the NMLS Number on Consumer Access for more information.

NMLS #'s: 1611328 | 2316461 | 2468709 | 1894173 | 2489117 | 2507996 | 2513177 | 2489113 | 2615968

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