January trade balance worse than expected


Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are getting a small boost today. The MBS market improved by +20 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced low volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: The February Challenger Job Cuts remained very elevated with 84.638K announced corporate cuts. Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were 217K versus estimates of 215K. The 4 week moving average dropped to 212K. Continuing Claims remained quite high at 1.906M versus estimates of 1.885M.

Manufacturing: The 4th QTR Non Farm Productivity remained at 3.2%, this is the third time that this data has been released. Unit Labor Costs were revised from 0.5% to 0.4%.

Trade: The total Goods and Services Trade Balance for January was worse than expected, $-67.4B versus estimates of $-63.5B.

The Consumer: We will get January's Consumer Credit Change at 3 pm today.

The Fed: We will get day two of Fed Chair Powell's testimony at 10 am, this time in front of the Senate Banking Committee.

Central Banks: The European Central Bank kept their key interest rate at 4.5% and lowered their inflation rate expectations across the board with them showing that they will hit 2% in 2025.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets got an initial boost but has already seen some pullback. Volatility has started high at moderate levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Paramount Residential Mortgage Group
Corporate NMLS ID:  75243
Privacy Policy:  https://www.prmg.net/privacy-policy/

Brian Voytko

Mortgage Advisor

NMLS: #437292

The Mortgage Whiz

Company NMLS: 338923

Cell: 215-407-3832

Email: BVoytko@PRMG.net

Web: http://www.mtgwhiz.com


Brian Voytko


Mortgage Advisor

NMLS: #437292

Cell: 215-407-3832

Last articles


Load more

Mortgage Calculator


Scroll top