Home Mortgage Alliance Corporation (HMAC)

December JOLTS reports 9 million unfilled jobs

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Published Date 1/30/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +10 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Domestic News:

Housing: The November YOY Case Shiller HPI showed a YOY price change of 5.4% versus October's pace of 4.9%. The MOM FHFA Housing Pricing Index showed a monthly increase of 0.3% in November which matched October's pace.

Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board's January reading hit 114.8 versus estimates of 114.0 of importance is that the Present Situation just jumped to a level not seen since March of 2020, 161.3 versus December's reading of 147.2.

Jobs: The December Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed unfilled jobs at 9.026M versus estimates of 8.75M.

The Fed: Today, the Federal Open Market Committee started two days of meetings which will culminate in Wednesday afternoon's Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement.

Foreign News:

Eurozone: 4th QTR GDP 0.1% versus estimates of 0.0%.

Germany: 4th QTR GDP -0.3% versus estimates of -0.3%

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are under pressure due to the job openings and consumer confidence reports. Volatility has started high but will likely moderate as markets settle in for the conclusion of FOMC.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

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