Manufacturing data better than expected

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Published Date 6/27/2023

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -6 bps yesterday. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Manufacturing: May Durable Goods were much stronger than expected with the headline reading rising by 1.7% vs. est. of a contraction of -1.0%. Ex Transportation, it was up 0.6% vs. est. of -0.1% and Non Defense Capital Goods Ex Aircraft were up 0.7% vs. est. of 0.0%. The June Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index hit -7 vs. est. of -10.0.

Housing: The April FHFA Housing Price Index, which is a MOM reading, showed an increase of 0.7% vs. est. of 0.3%. The April Case-Shiller Home Prices metro Index, which is a YOY reading, showed a decrease of -1.7% vs. est. of -2.6%. May New Home Sales were 763K at an annualized pace vs. est. of 675K.

Consumer Confidence: The June Conference Board's Index was 109.7 vs. est. of 103.7.

Treasury Sale: We have a shorter term 5 year Treasury note auction at 1 pm ET.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are mostly treading water. Volatility has started at moderate levels with choppy movement in a narrow channel.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Guardian Mortgage, a division of Sunflower Bank, N.A.

Dean Wegner

Mortgage Area Manager

NMLS: NMLS# 220741

Guardian Mortgage

16430 N Scottsdale Rd #120, Scottsdale AZ

Company NMLS: Dean Wegner

Office: 602-432-6388

Cell: 480-286-3303

Email: deanwegner@gmc-inc.com

Web: https://www.guardianmortgageonline.com/loanoriginators/Dean-Wegner