Retail sales lower than expected

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Published Date 7/18/2023

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Lower

Mortgage rates are moving lower today. The MBS market improved by +13 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Retail Sales: We got a mixed bag with the June data. The headline Retail Sales were lighter than expectations, 0.2% vs. est. of 0.5% but May was revised higher from 0.3% to 0.5%. Ex Autos, Retail Sales were up 0.2% vs. est. of 0.3%. May was revised higher from 0.1% to 0.3%. The Control Group which is a group that would feed into the GDP data was significantly higher than expected, up 0.6% vs. est. of -0.3%.

Manufacturing: The June manufacturing sector data was weaker than expected. Industrial Production was down -0.5% vs. est. for a flat 0.0%. Capacity Utilization was only 78.9% vs. est. of 79.5%.

Housing: The NAHB Housing Market Index for July was solid at 56 which matched expectations.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are getting a boost on the economic data. Volatility has started moderate with a big spike at the start of the day that has leveled out.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Guardian Mortgage, a division of Sunflower Bank, N.A.

Dean Wegner

Mortgage Area Manager

NMLS: NMLS# 220741

Guardian Mortgage

16430 N Scottsdale Rd #120, Scottsdale AZ

Company NMLS: Dean Wegner

Office: 602-432-6388

Cell: 480-286-3303

Email: deanwegner@gmc-inc.com

Web: https://www.guardianmortgageonline.com/loanoriginators/Dean-Wegner