Markets start the day under pressure

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Published Date 7/20/2023

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Higher

Mortgage rates are moving higher today. The MBS market improved by +5 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Higher

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims dropped to 228K vs. est. of 242K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average fell to 237K. Continuing Claims moved higher, 1.754M vs. est. of 1.729M.

Manufacturing: The July Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey continues to show weakness as the outlook was once again in contractionary territory, -13.5 vs. est. of -10. It marked the 10th straight month of contraction.

Housing: June Existing Home Sales were 4.16M units on a seasonally adjusted, annualized pace. That was below the market expectations of 4.20M units. At $410,200, the median existing-home sales price for June was the second-highest price ever recorded. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.1-month supply at the current sales pace.

Central Banks: The People's Bank of China kept their key interest rate at 3.55%. Turkey's Central Bank raised their key interest rate by 250 basis points to 17.5%, the market was expecting a larger increase of 500 basis points.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are under heavy pressure. Volatility has started high and seems to be mostly driven by market forces rather than data.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Guardian Mortgage, a division of Sunflower Bank, N.A.

Dean Wegner

Mortgage Area Manager

NMLS: NMLS# 220741

Guardian Mortgage

16430 N Scottsdale Rd #120, Scottsdale AZ

Company NMLS: Dean Wegner

Office: 602-432-6388

Cell: 480-286-3303

Email: deanwegner@gmc-inc.com

Web: https://www.guardianmortgageonline.com/loanoriginators/Dean-Wegner