Published Date 7/18/2019
Today's Mortgage Rate Summary
How Rates Move:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on
the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real
time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage
pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic
or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing
generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
Rates Currently Trending:
Neutral
Mortgage rates are moving sideways so far today on a bit of
volatility.
The MBS market
improved by+14bps yesterday. This caused rates or fees to tick
very slightly lower.
Today's Rate Forecast:
Neutral
Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims matched expectations (216K). The more closely watched 4-week moving average dropped to 218,750.
Manufacturing: We got another regional report that was significantly stronger than expected. The Philly Fed came in at 21.8 vs. est of 5.0.
Leading Economic Indicators: The June release showed a rare contraction of -0.3% vs. expectations for a small gain of +0.1%.
The Fed: We will hear from Raphael Bostic and John Williams today and get their weekly release of the Balance Sheet in the afternoon.
Great Britain: Retail Sales 1.0% vs. est of -0.3%
Canada: ADP Private Payrolls change 30.4K vs. last of -16.0K
Australia: Unemployment rate of 5.2% vs. est of 5.2%
Today's Potential Rate Volatility:
Average
While rates are moving sideways so far today, there has been a bit of volatility
so far today. The manufacturing report this morning was stronger than expected, but on the flip side,
the concern over trade and the debt ceiling is helping to keep rates in check. Look for rates to mostly move sideways today on moderate volatility.
Bottom Line:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
Source: TBWS
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
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