Market Focus: Jobs and PPI data better than expected
Published Date 10/14/2021
Today's Mortgage Rate Summary
How Rates Move:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
Rates Currently Trending: Lower
Mortgage rates are moving slightly lower today. The MBS market worsened by -8 bps yesterday. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.
Today's Rate Forecast: Lower
Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lighter than expected, 293K vs. est. of 319K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average dipped to 334K. Continuing Claims decreased to 2.593M vs. est. of 2.675M
Inflation: The September headline Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 8.6% on a YOY basis from 8.3% in August. On a MOM basis, it increased by 0.5% vs. est. of 0.6%. Core PPI (ex food and energy) increased by 6.8% on a YOY basis vs. est. of 7.1% MOM, it was up 0.2% vs. est. of 0.5%.
Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral
This morning we're seeing some positive movement on the light inflation data. Volatility is moderate to start but market forces or headline news could easily eat into the morning gains.
Bottom Line:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
Source: TBWSAll information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
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