January retail sales data lower than expected
Published Date 2/15/2024
Today's Mortgage Rate Summary
How Rates Move:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
Rates Currently Trending: Neutral
Mortgage rates are getting support today. The MBS market improved by +25 bps yesterday. This may have been enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.
Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral
Retail Sales: The headline January Retail Sales report was a big miss to the downside, down -0.8% versus estimates of -0.1%. Ex Autos, they were down -0.6% versus estimates of +0.2% and the Control Group (which feeds into GDP) moved from +0.4% in December down to -0.6% in January.
Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were 212K versus estimates of 220K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average moved up to 218K. Continuing Claims were 1.895M versus estimates of 1.880M.
Manufacturing: We got two regional Fed reports today and both were better than expected. Feb Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey +5.2 versus estimates of -8.0. Empire Manufacturing Index -2.4 versus estimates of -15.0. January Industrial Production hit -0.1% versus estimates of 0.3% and Capacity Utilization 78.5% versus estimates of 78.8%.
Import/Export: Import Prices rose by +0.8% in January versus estimates of flat at 0.0%. Export Prices also rose by +0.8% versus estimates of -0.1%.
Housing: The NAHB Home Builders Sentiment Index was better than expected, 48 versus 46.
The Fed: Today we will hear from Fed Governor Waller.
Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High
This morning markets are getting a boost on the economic data and some rumblings on geopolitical concerns. Volatility has started high with world events a factor going forward.
Bottom Line:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
Source: TBWSAll information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
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