Durable Goods Orders higher than expected

Published Date 3/26/2024

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Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -6 bps yesterday. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced low volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Manufacturing: Headline February Durable Goods Orders were up 1.4% versus estimates of 1.3%. Ex Transportation, they were up 0.5% versus estimates of 0.4%. Non Defense Capital Goods Orders Ex Aircraft (a proxy for capital goods spending) was up 0.7% versus estimates of 0.1%. The March Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index contracted by -11 versus estimates of -5.

Housing: The January FHFA Housing Price Index actually showed a MOM decline of -0.1% versus estimates of +0.1%. The January metro city Case Shiller Home Price Index showed a YOY price increase of 6.6% versus estimates of 6.7% but a nice bump over December's level of 6.2%.

Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board's March reading dropped from 104.8 in February (revised lower from originally posted 106.7) down to 104.7 in March versus estimates of 107.0.

Treasury Auction: We have a 5 year note auction at 1 pm ET today.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Low

This morning markets are trading in a narrow channel. Volatility has started low.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

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