China’s reported GDP exceeds expectations

Published Date 4/16/2024

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Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market worsened by -34 bps yesterday. This may have been enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Housing: March Building Permits were weaker than expected with 1.458M versus estimates of 1.514M. Same story with Housing Starts, 1.321M versus estimates of 1.480M.

Manufacturing: March Industrial Production was up 0.4% versus estimates of 0.4%. February was revised upward from 0.1% to 0.4%. Capacity Utilization hit 78.4% versus estimates of 78.5%

The Fed: Today we hear from Powell, Jefferson, Williams and Barkin

IMF: They upgraded their global growth projections to 3.2% for 2024

China: GDP 5.3% versus estimates of 5.0%

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are under mild pressure. Volatility has started at moderate to high levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

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