The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index met expectations

Published Date 4/23/2024

---

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +10 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced low volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Manufacturing: We will get the high-frequency S&P Markit MFG and Services PMI at 9:45 am ET. Both are expected to have readings above 50. The Richmond Fed MFG index will get hit at 10 am and has been stubbornly below 0 for some time. It matched expectations coming in at -7.

Housing: March New Home Sales will hit at 10 am. Expectations are for an annualized pace of 670K units which is basically on trend from Feb's pace of 662K.

Treasury Auction: We kick off three days of dumping our debt into the marketplace with today's shorter term 2 year note.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets having been trading in a narrow channel. Volatility has started at moderate levels but may increase with the afternoon Treasury auction.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

---