Published Date 4/8/2024
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market worsened by -34 bps last week. This may have been enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Inflation, 2) Central Banks and 3) The Fed.
1) Inflation: We have three big reports this week that address inflation: CPI, PPI and Import Prices. It was a month ago that higher than expected readings in both CPI and PPI kicked off a round of worsening MBS prices. They are expected to continue to expand.
2) Central Banks: We will have important rate decisions and policy statements and speeches from several central banks this week with the spotlight on Thursday's ECB. The European Central Bank had been considered (two meetings ago) to be on a path towards being the first Central Bank to start cutting rates right about now... however that expectation has soured and we will be looking for more forward guidance out of the ECB.
3) The Fed: One of the main sources of downward momentum in the MBS markets over the past two weeks has been various Fed Speeches that seem to support being "data dependent" and sticking to the 2% target rate and that the Fed's rate landscape may only include 1 rate change this year instead of the 3 that are still priced in. This week we will also focus on Fed Speak and will get the Minutes from the last FOMC meeting.
Treasury Auction: Thursday's 30Y Bond Auction will be the most important of the week.
04/09 3 year note.
04/10 10 year note.
04/11 30 year bond.
This morning markets continue to be under pressure after last week's data. Volatility has started high as markets adjust to a new trading channel.
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
Source: TBWSAll information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
NMLS: 258527
Mortgage Goat LLC
130 N Preston rd #318, Prosper TX 75078
Company NMLS: 258527 /133739
Office: 469-628-4544
Cell: 469-628-4544
Email: jc@themortgagegoat.net
NMLS: 258527
Cell: 469-628-4544
12/11/2024
If a tree falls in the woods and no one is there to hear it, did it make noise? ... view more
12/11/2024
November CPI was right on forecasts, a little unusual...... view more
12/10/2024
You’ve got a cavernous 2-story home with an owners’ suite on the top floor. The ... view more
12/10/2024
The November NFIB Business Optimism Index jumped to...... view more
12/9/2024
The chicken or the egg – which came first? When it comes to housing...... view more
12/9/2024
These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this we... view more
12/9/2024
This week is focused on inflation data, released on Wednesday and Thursday...... view more
12/6/2024
You’re at work all day. But because of notifications you’ve received...... view more