Markets get a boost on lower than expected CPI

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Published Date 7/11/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Lower

Mortgage rates are moving lower today. The MBS market improved by +10 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Lower

Inflation: The June headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) was lower than expected with a MOM gain of 0.1% versus estimates of 0.2%. YOY, it was up 3.0% versus estimates of 3.1%. Core (ex food and energy) CPI actually contracted by -0.1% versus estimates of 0.1% on a MOM basis and was up 3.3% versus estimates of 3.4% on a YOY basis.

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lower than expected, 222K versus estimates of 236K. The four week moving average moved down to 233K. Continuing Claims were 1.852M versus estimates of 1.860M but remained above the important 1.8M line.

Treasury Auction: We have an important 30 year Treasury Bond auction today at 1 pm.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are getting a boost on the inflation data. Volatility has started high with more potentially coming with the bond auction in the afternoon.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

J.C. Mier The Mortgage GOAT

Branch Manager/ Loan Officer

NMLS: 258527

Mortgage Goat LLC

130 N Preston rd #318, Prosper TX 75078

Company NMLS: 258527 /133739

Office: 469-628-4544

Cell: 469-628-4544

Email: jc@themortgagegoat.net

Web: http://www.themortgageGOAT.net