Published Date 9/30/2024
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market worsened by -7 bps last week. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) The Fed, 2) Jobs and 3) PMIs.
1) The Fed: We have a very busy Fed speak schedule that is kicked off this Monday with Fed Chair Powell.
09/30 Powell, Bowman
10/01 Bostic
10/02 Hammack, Musalem, Bowman and Barkin
10/03 Bostic, Kashkari
10/04 Williams
2) Jobs: We get a ton of job and wage related data this week culminating in Big Jobs Friday. The bond market will be very sensitive to any weakness in the overall wage and/or job picture as we get JOLTS, ADP, Challenger Job Cuts, Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, U6 Underemployment Rate, Average Work Week Hours and Labor Force Participation Rate.
3) PMIs: This week we will get Chicago PMI and both ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI with the focus on the later. Also in the same genre is Factory Orders and the final September flash PMI readings.
This morning markets have started under mild pressure. Volatility has started at moderate levels but will increase later in the week.
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
Source: TBWSAll information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
NMLS: 258527
Mortgage Goat LLC
130 N Preston rd #318, Prosper TX 75078
Company NMLS: 258527 /133739
Office: 469-628-4544
Cell: 469-628-4544
Email: jc@themortgagegoat.net
NMLS: 258527
Cell: 469-628-4544
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