The February employment report surprised markets

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Published Date 3/8/2024

February employment at 8:30 am ET this morning pushed rates lower. The unemployment rate expected unchanged at 3.7% increased to 3.9%. Non-farm jobs thought to be +190K increased 275K, January jobs were revised from 353K to 229K (the downward revision was expected), private jobs estimates +150K increased 233K, January private jobs revised from 317K to 229K. Average hourly earnings month/month +0.1% against estimates of 0.3%, January revised to +0.5% from 0.6%; year/year earnings +4.3% as expected, January revised from +4.5% to +4.4%. The lower revisions from January on job growth offset the stronger increase in February.

Stronger jobs in February offset by revisions from January. Wages lower than thought. The economy is humming along, and inflation is easing, unemployment rate increased added to the takeaway, all is good for the Fed to continue expecting to lower rates. Jobs numbers strong in February but offset on revisions in January and December, a total of 167K less. Softer wage gains add additional credence the Fed will begin lowering rates soon, yesterday the outlook for rate cuts was at the June FOMC meeting, after the data this morning traders will likely move the cut forward to the May meeting… but inflation data looms next week.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -16, NASDAQ +35, S&P +6. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.08% -1 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon +9 bps from yesterday’s close and +13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

There isn’t anything left on the calendar today. Set your clocks ahead tomorrow.

Looking ahead, next week is inflation week with February CPI and PPI on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Source: TBWS

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