Initial Weekly Jobless claims meet expectations

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Published Date 3/21/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +31 bps yesterday. This may have been enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Housing: We will get the NARs February Existing Home Sales report at 10 am ET.

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were 210K versus estimates of 215K. The 4 week moving average ticked up to 211K. Continuing Claims moved up a smidge to 1.807M.

Manufacturing: The March Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey was much stronger than expected, hitting positive territory with a 3.2 reading versus estimates of -2.3.

The Fed: Today we will hear from Vice Chair Barr at noon.

Central Banks: The Bank of England kept their interest rate at 5.25%. Of significance is that two of members that had voted for a rate hike at the last meeting are no longer doing so.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are coasting after yesterday's FOMC. Volatility has started at moderate levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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