Manufacturing data continues to worsen as Initial Weekly Jobless claims drop

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Published Date 3/28/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +11 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced low volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Housing: The February Pending Home Sales Index edged out estimates, up 1.6% versus estimates of 1.5%.

Jobs: The Initial Weekly Jobless Claims continues to defy logic with only 210K. The four week moving average dropped to 211K. Continuing Claims were 1.819M.

GDP: We got our third look at the 4th QTR GDP and it was revised higher from the last revision of 3.2% to 3.4%. The increase in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and state and local government spending.

Manufacturing: The March bellwether Chicago PMI cratered down to 41.4 versus estimates of 46.0. This is a very contractionary reading and further evidence of our long term manufacturing recession.

Consumer Sentiment: The final March reading was revised from 76.5 to 79.4.

The Fed: Fed Governor Waller said he expects the number of rate cuts to be lower than 3 or even pushed out until next year.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are under mild pressure. Volatility wil be moderate today.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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