Markets calm despite rise in Initial Weekly Jobless Claims

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Published Date 5/9/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -10 bps yesterday. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced low volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were higher than expected, up 231K versus estimates of 210K. The four week moving average remained very low at 215K. Continuing Claims remained below 1.8M with a reading of 1.785M versus estimates of 1.790M.

Treasury Auction: We have the most important treasury auction of the week with today's 30 year bond auction.

The Fed: Today we will hear from S.F. President Daly.

Central Banks: The Bank of England kept their key interest rate at 5.25% but signaled that a rate cut could be coming at their next meeting with 2 voting members voting for a cut at this meeting versus 1 member at their prior meeting.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are trading sideways with some room for positive growth. Volatility has started low but will likely increase with the afternoon Treasury auction.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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