Import prices increased much more than expected

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Published Date 5/16/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +36 bps yesterday. This may have been enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims hit 222K versus estimates of 220K. The four week moving average ticked upward to 217K. Continuing Claims continued their streak of sub-1.8M readings at 1.794M.

Manufacturing: The May Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey was lighter than expected, 4.5 versus estimates of 8.0. We will get April Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization at 9:15 am.

Housing: April New Housing Starts were 1.360M versus estimates of 1.420M and Building Permits were 1.360M versus estimates of 1.48M.

Import/Export: April Import Prices increased on a MOM basis of 0.9% versus estimates of 0.3%. Export Prices MOM were up 0.5 versus estimates of 0.4%.

The Fed: Today we hear from Barr, Harker, Mester and Bostic.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are moving sideways but market forces are expected to apply pressure later in the day. Volatility has started at moderate levels with narrow trading.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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