Published Date 3/13/2023
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
Mortgage rates are moving lower today. The MBS market improved by +13 bps last week. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week: 1) SVB, 2) Inflation and 3) Central Banks
1) SVB: The fallout from Silicon Valley Bank continues to drive money into long bonds as a flight to safety. It was the biggest factor in rates last week. Speculation and concern that other similar banks may face the same issues.
2) Inflation: We get our last big dose of economic data that the Fed needs before their FOMC meeting next week. This week we will get CPI and PPI.
3) Central Banks: We get an important interest rate decision out of the ECB. They flat out said that they would raise it 50BPS at their last meeting but will they back off their forward guidance at this meeting?
This morning markets are getting a huge boost on banking fears. Volatility is extremely high and will remain so as long as banking fears dominate the news cycle.
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
Source: TBWSAll information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
NMLS: 250609 / DRE 01137630
Allianze Mortgage Services
15820 Whittier Blvd. Suite G, Whittier CA 90603
Company NMLS: 346138 / DRE 01403147
Office: 949-241-2527
Cell: 949-241-2527
NMLS: 250609 / DRE 01137630
Cell: 949-241-2527
7/1/2024
These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this we... view more