Initial Weekly Jobless Claims continue to climb

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Published Date 11/16/2023

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Lower

Mortgage rates are moving lower today. The MBS market worsened by -21 bps yesterday. This may have been enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were higher than expected, 231K versus estimates of 220K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average increased to 220K. Continuing Claims were higher than expected, 1.865M versus estimates of 1.847M and were the highest in a year.

Manufacturing: The November Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey was less-worse than expected with a contraction of -5.9 versus estimates of -9.0. October Industrial Production contracted by -0.6 versus estimates of -0.3. Capacity Utilization hit 78.9% versus estimates of 79.4%.

Import/Export: October Import Prices dropped by -0.8% MOM and -2.0% YOY. Export Prices were down -1.1% MOM and -4.9% on YOY.

Housing: The November NAHB was awful at 34 versus estimates of 40.

The Fed: Today we will here from Mester, Williams and Waller.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are getting a boost on the economic data. Volatility has started high.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Millenium Home Mortgage, LLC NMLS # 51519 Licensed by the NJ Department of Banking and Insurance, CT Mortgage Banker 1st and 2nd Mortgages Licensed as MHM Home Mortgage, Licensed by the Pennsylvania Department of Banking. All interest rates, fees and programs are subject to change without notice. THIS ENTIRE SITE IS NOT INTENDED AS A SOLICITATION FOR MORTGAGE LOAN CUSTOMERS IN NEW YORK, PENNSYLVANIA, OR CONNECTICUT.