Inflation finally ‘deflating.” What’s next?

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Published Date 11/20/2023

According to a government report released on Tuesday, inflation is finally falling, and millions of homebuyers’ and home sellers’ fingers are crossed hoping mortgage rates might be close behind.

Claire Trapasso, reporter for Realtor.com, says, “For the past year and a half, the U.S. Federal Reserve has been hiking its short-term interest rates to combat inflation. This has helped to push up mortgage rates, which are separate from the Fed’s rates but have been moving in a similar direction.” She continues, “The Fed’s aggressive moves now appear to have been working. Inflation fell to 3.2% year over year in October, down from a 3.7% year-over-year increase in September, according to the consumer price index released on Tuesday.

The hopeful prediction is that this could lead to the Feds to eventually start cutting rates next year if inflation continues to fall, keeping mortgage rates flat or pushing them down a bit.

“Mortgage rates are plunging with the news of inflation calming,” National Association of Realtors® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement. “The interest rate rises should be over, and the Fed will have to consider cutting interest rates seriously.”

While this all sounds good, inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target. And while the Fed chose to keep rates steady at its last meeting, it hasn’t ruled out future interest rate hikes, according to Trapasso.

“The higher interest rates go, the greater fears are that the country could fall into a recession—something the Fed has been trying to avoid. Typically, the Fed lowers rates in times of economic turmoil to help to stimulate the economy,” she says.

“The Fed will continue to watch the economic data while having to make policy decisions in an economic environment unlike any we’ve ever seen,” Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant said in a statement. “A soft landing is still possible, but the road to getting there is definitely still filled with uncertainties.”

Realtor, TBWS

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