Published Date 12/29/2023
This morning rates began a little higher, the 10 year at 8:30 am ET +4 bps from yesterday at 3.88%, MBSs began down 7 bps from yesterday. The end of 2023 today, good riddance; next year will be better.
This year marked with volatility, the 10 year began the year at 3.74%, climbed to 5.0% in October then retreated to end 2023 at 3.89%. Through yesterday, the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield was down 12 basis points for 2023, its first yearly decline since 2020. The Fed drove markets in 2023, increasing rates every FOMC meeting until November when it ended, since then the consensus has swung around to fully expect rate cuts in 2024; the mantra adopted by markets, “higher for longer” drove rates higher until J Powell conceded the Fed may be finished increasing rates, the acronym changed to the “Fed pivot.” 2023 was good for equities, the DJIA rallied 5700 points, NASDAQ 4700, and the S&P +1.000. The bellwether 10 year note going to end the year where it started at 3.89%, same thing with MBS prices.
Most traders and investors believe 2024 will avoid recession, worst case a mild slowdown. Markets so sure that there won’t be a recession that if it were to occur rates will plummet and the stock indexes will face strong declines.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +10, NASDAQ +6, S&P +1. 10 year at 9:30 am +5 bp at 3.89%. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -11 bps from yesterday’s close and -28 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 9:45 am December Chicago purchasing managers index, expectations at 50.0 from 55.8, the index declined to 46.9; the weak index provided some support for rates.
Nothing left today, the bond and mortgage markets will end the day at 2 pm while the stock market will trade its regular hours. Next week’s calendar has key data, the December employment report, JOLTS job openings, FOMC minutes from the 12/13 meeting, December ISM manufacturing and service sector indexes.
Source: TBWS
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
Millenium Home Mortgage, LLC NMLS # 51519 Licensed by the NJ Department of Banking and Insurance, CT Mortgage Banker 1st and 2nd Mortgages Licensed as MHM Home Mortgage, Licensed by the Pennsylvania Department of Banking. All interest rates, fees and programs are subject to change without notice. THIS ENTIRE SITE IS NOT INTENDED AS A SOLICITATION FOR MORTGAGE LOAN CUSTOMERS IN NEW YORK, PENNSYLVANIA, OR CONNECTICUT.
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Millenium Home Mortgage LLC
211 North Ave East, Westfield NJ
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Office: 908-588-7601
Cell: 908-875-7918
Email: jgalayda@mhmlender.com
NMLS: 65345
Cell: 908-875-7918
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