Initial Weekly Jobless claims continue to show a surprisingly strong labor market

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Published Date 2/8/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market worsened by -14 bps yesterday. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were 218K versus estimates of 220K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average moved upward to 212K which is still extremely low. Continuing Claims were 1.871M versus estimates of 1.878M.

Treasury Auction: We have an important 30Y Treasury Bond Auction today at 1 pm.

The Fed: We will hear from Barkin several times.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are under mild pressure. Volatility has started at moderate levels but the 30 Year Bond Auction does present a risk.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

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