Job openings increase by most in a year

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Published Date 5/7/2019

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways so far today. The MBS market improved by +2 bps yesterday. This wasn't enough to improve rates or fees. The rates experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: The March Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) once again came in above 7M with an extremely high reading of 7.488M vs est of 7.240M. Plus, February's high reading was revised upward. The trend of +1M more job openings than there are unemployed people looking for jobs continues.

Economic Optimism: The IBD/TIPP May reading was very robust and beat out expectations (58.6 vs est of 54.5).

Treasury Dump: We kick off three straight days of dumping our debt into the market place with our shorter-term 3-year note at 1:00 pm ET.

Consumer Credit: The March reading will hit at 3:00, the market is expecting a reading in the $16B range.

Fed: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said that "If ...we grow 2.25 percent (this year), we continue to see strengthening in the labor market, we continue to see some firming in inflation, moving towards our 2 percent objective, that will reinforce to me that our rate setting is in the right neighborhood." We will hear from Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles this afternoon.

Trade: Beijing confirmed that Vice Premier Liu He would travel to Washington for two days this week to lead trade talks.

Japan: Nikkei Manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs est of 49.5

Germany: Factory Orders -6.0% vs est of -6.2%

Eurozone: The European Commission decreased its forward-looking growth rate from 1.3% to 1.2%.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key interest rate unchanged at 1.5%.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Low

Mortgage rates continue to move sideways on relatively low volatility. The economic news came in strong today. However, the looming trade talks continue to keep a lid on rates. Look for rates to move sideways on low volatility through today.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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