Rates flat as jobless claims edge higher

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Published Date 6/13/2019

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways so far today. The MBS market worsened by -2 bps yesterday. This caused rates to move sideways for the day on low volatility.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were slightly higher than expectations (222K vs est of 216K). The more closely watched 4-week moving average ticked up a smidge to 217,750.

Genco Olive Oil: Import Prices DROPPED a massive -1.5% on a YOY basis vs est of a gain of +0.4%. This is due to China exporting its deflation. Treasury Dump: Today we have our 30-year bond at 1 PM.

Central Bank: The Swiss National Bank kept its key interest rate at -0.75%

Oil: Oil prices have moved higher this morning on news that two separate tankers have been attacked. Neither of them were carrying oil, they were carrying chemicals, but it has traders uneasy about rising threats in the Strait of Hormuz.

Germany: CPI YOY 1.4% vs est of 1.4%

Eurozone: Industrial Production YOY -0.4% vs est of -0.5%

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Average

Rates are once again moving sideways on relatively low volatility. There's nothing due out today that will likely push rates out of its existing channel. Tomorrow, with retail sales, could be a different story.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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