Rates stabalize as housing prices continue to rise and jobless claims higher than expected.

___

Published Date 7/22/2021

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Rates are moving sideways so far today. The MBS market worsened by -19 bps yesterday. This is usually not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced average volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Housing: June Existing Home Sales were 5.86M units which is a 1.4% increase over May's annualized pace. The market was expecting 5.9M. The median sale price increased to $363,300 which is a 23.4% gain from this time last year and marks the 112th straight month of YOY price increases.

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were higher than expected (419K vs. est. 360K). The more closely watched 4 week moving average ticked up to 385.25K. Continuing Claims were 3.236M vs. est. of 3.100M.

Leading Indicators: The June LEI increased by 0.7% which was lower than expectations of 1.0%.

Central Banks: The ECB kept their key interest rates at the same levels. The following quote sums up their forward guidance: "in support of its symmetric two per cent inflation target and in line with its monetary policy strategy, the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it sees inflation reaching two per cent well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon"

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

Poor jobs data and rising housing prices compete with fears of shutdowns due to Delta. Volatility has decreased but if we do get movement, it is likely to be for the better.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

“Equal Housing Lender. NEXA Mortgage, LLC NMLS 1660690. I am a licensed mortgage originator, NMLS # 630337, and licensed to originate mortgage loans in the state of Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, Tennessee, and Texas. To learn more, visit my NEXA Mortgage website at http://lillianwong.net."