Three things that could impact rates this week

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Published Date 2/20/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Nuetral

Mortgage rates are getting some mild support today. The MBS market worsened by -52 bps last week. This may have been enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This week's Rate Forecast: Nuetral

Three Things: These are the three areas that will move markets this week 1) The Fed, 2) Treasury Auction and 3) Geopolitical.

1) The Fed: The highlight this week will be the release of the Minutes from the last FOMC meeting but throughout the week we will have important speeches.

02/21 Bostic, Bowman and the FOMC Minutes

02/22 Jefferson, Harker, Kashkari, Cook

02/23 Waller

2) Treasury Auction: We have an important 20 year Treasury bond auction on Wednesday.

3) Geopolitical: In the vacuum of any meaningful domestic economic releases, the markets will focus on geopolitical escalations globally as well as discussions in the House over yet another looming government shutdown.

This week's Potential Rate Volatility: Nuetral

This morning markets are getting some mild support. Volatility has started low but will likely reach moderate levels during the week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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