Service sector failed to meet expectations for February

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Published Date 3/5/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are getting some support today. The MBS market worsened by -21 bps yesterday. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced low volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Service Sector: The February ISM Non Manufacturing PMI (Services) which accounts for as much as 2/3 of our economic engine hit 52.6 versus estimates of 53.0. Prices Paid were 58.6 versus January's pace of 64.0 and the Employment Index contracted 48.0 versus January's 50.5. The bright spot was New Orders which surged 56.1.

Manufacturing: January Factory Orders contracted by -3.6 versus estimates of -2.8 plus December was revised lower from +0.2% down to -0.3%.

The Fed: Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicated that he expects the Fed’s first interest-rate cut, which he has penciled in for the third quarter, will be followed by a pause the following meeting to assess how the policy shift is affecting the economy. We will also hear from Gov Barr today.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are getting a small boost on the morning data. Volatility has started at moderate levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

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