Durable Goods Orders higher than expected

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Published Date 3/26/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -6 bps yesterday. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced low volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Manufacturing: Headline February Durable Goods Orders were up 1.4% versus estimates of 1.3%. Ex Transportation, they were up 0.5% versus estimates of 0.4%. Non Defense Capital Goods Orders Ex Aircraft (a proxy for capital goods spending) was up 0.7% versus estimates of 0.1%. The March Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index contracted by -11 versus estimates of -5.

Housing: The January FHFA Housing Price Index actually showed a MOM decline of -0.1% versus estimates of +0.1%. The January metro city Case Shiller Home Price Index showed a YOY price increase of 6.6% versus estimates of 6.7% but a nice bump over December's level of 6.2%.

Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board's March reading dropped from 104.8 in February (revised lower from originally posted 106.7) down to 104.7 in March versus estimates of 107.0.

Treasury Auction: We have a 5 year note auction at 1 pm ET today.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Low

This morning markets are trading in a narrow channel. Volatility has started low.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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