The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index met expectations

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Published Date 4/23/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +10 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced low volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Manufacturing: We will get the high-frequency S&P Markit MFG and Services PMI at 9:45 am ET. Both are expected to have readings above 50. The Richmond Fed MFG index will get hit at 10 am and has been stubbornly below 0 for some time. It matched expectations coming in at -7.

Housing: March New Home Sales will hit at 10 am. Expectations are for an annualized pace of 670K units which is basically on trend from Feb's pace of 662K.

Treasury Auction: We kick off three days of dumping our debt into the marketplace with today's shorter term 2 year note.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets having been trading in a narrow channel. Volatility has started at moderate levels but may increase with the afternoon Treasury auction.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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