This week markets will be focused on FOMC and the employment report

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Published Date 4/29/2024

The headlines this week, the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and April unemployment data on Friday. Mixed in the data, measurements of manufacturing and the service sector and April consumer confidence from the Conference board. At 9 am ET the 10 year note down 3 bps to 4.64%, MBSs at 9 am +11 bps from Friday.

This morning the Japanese yen fell to its lowest level against the dollar in 34 years; last week talk that Japan would intervene in the currency market to stop the decline but Japan’s top currency official, Masato Kanda, chose to keep investors guessing by declining to comment. Dow Jones reported authorities stepped in to buy the yen, citing people familiar with the matter. The yen topped 161 yen to the dollar before a huge reversal, at 9 am 156.41, the widest trading range since late 2022.

There isn’t any data today; markets prepping for Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. recent inflation reports have not been cooperating with the fed looking for inflation to decline. All three inflation measurements, CPI, PPI and PCE releases provided little support for the Fed cutting rates anytime soon, there is increasing talk the Fed may increase rates. Consumers continue to spend, prices for essentials like food and gas still not lessening but try as it might to ignore overall inflation and focus mostly on the core, ex food and energy isn’t as true a measurement as it was in years past.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +76, NASDAQ +76, S&P +16. 10 year note 4.64% -3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +12 bps from Friday’s closes and +23 bps from 9:30 am Friday.

With no key news this morning and nothing on the calendar today, rates don’t have much to go on. The calendar is full of critical data this week, two main events, FOMC and April employment data. Should be a quiet one today.

This Week’s Economic Calendar:

Tuesday,

8:30 am Q1 employment cost index (+0.9%)

9 am February Case/Shiller home price index (month/month +0.1% unch from January, year/year +6.7% from 6.6%)

9:45 am April Chicago purchasing managers index (+45.0 from 41.5)

10 am April consumer confidence index (104.0 from 104.7)

FOMC begins

Wednesday,

7 am weekly MBA mortgage applications

8:15 am April ADP private jobs (+175K from +184K in March)

9:45 am April PMI manufacturing index (49.9 from 51.9)

10 am April ISM manufacturing index (50.0 from 50.3)

March JOLTS job openings (8.7 million from 8.756 million)

March construction spending (+0.5% from -0.3%)

2 pm FOMC Policy statement

2:30 PM Jerome Powell’s press conference

Thursday,

8:30 am weekly jobless claims (210K from 207K)

March US trade deficit (-$69.0B)

Q1 preliminary productivity and unit labor costs (productivity +0.9% from +3.2% in Q4, Unit labor costs +2.6% from +0.4% in Q4)

10 am March factory orders (+1.6% from +1.4%)

Friday,

8:30 am April employment data (Unemployment +3.8% unch, NFP jobs +230K from 303K, private jobs +180K from 232K. labor participation rate 62.7% unch, average hourly earnings month/month +0.3%, year/year +4.0% from 4.1%)

9:45 am April PMI services (50.9 from 51.7)

10 am April ISM services index (52.0 from 51.4)

Source: TBWS

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