ADP jobs report weaker than expected

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Published Date 10/4/2023

The 10 closed yesterday at 4.80%, overnight the note increased to 4.89% before relief, by 8 am ET 4.75% -5 bps. MBS prices began better, at 8 am the 6.0 30 year coupon traded +29 bps.

At 8:15 am ADP reported private jobs were expected +150K, reported +89K; the lowest increase in jobs since Sept, 2021. The government on Friday is expected to report that 170,000 new jobs were created in September, including new hires in government. ADP’s report excludes government employment. ADP data and the BLS data vary a lot, so we won’t take the lower jobs seriously. The Fed should like the weak jobs but officials still warning the possibility of another rate increase before calling it quits.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +65 after declining 431 yesterday, NASDAQ +42 from -248 yesterday, S&P +9 from -59 yesterday. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +27 bps from yesterday’s close and -22 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

Crude oil this morning down over $2.67; oil officials from Russia and Saudi Arabia confirmed that output will remain at a reduced level through the end of the year.

At 9:45 am the Sept final PMI, manufacturing index expected at 50.1, service index expected at 50.2; manufacturing 50.2 services 50.1. Both at pivotal levels between contraction and growth.

At 10 am the Sept ISM services sector index expected at 53.5 reported at 53.6, above 50 suggests expansion. August factory orders thought to be +0.2% increased 1.2% from -2.1% in July.

Source: TBWS

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