Market volatility remains high

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Published Date 10/18/2023

More volatility overnight, the 10 year note trading in Europe declined 3 bps, by 8 am ET the note at 4.87% +3 bps.

At 8:30 am Sept housing starts and permits. Starts expected at 1.394 million reported at 1.358 million and August revised from 1.283 million to 1.269 million. Permits thought to be 1.450 million increased to 1.473 million, August revised from 1.543 million to 1.541 million. Starts increased 7.0% from August. Building permits fell 4.4%. Most of the improvement was in multi-family, single family increased 3.2% while multi-family increased 17.1%. Permits for single-family homes rose 1.8% in September, while permits for buildings with at least five units or more fell 14%.

A few weeks ago, the mantra within the rate markets was ‘higher for longer’ it kind of waned until this last week after the war developed, now the consensus is back to ‘higher for longer’ for interest rates. Stronger than expected retail sales yesterday added to the Fed’s dilemma whether to stop increasing or continue to think of more may be necessary. We don’t expect more increases but equally no reduction as some were espousing recently. Beside the economic data, there is growing concern that the US debt will continue to increase, would be buyers of more debt will keep rates higher for longer.

This afternoon at 2 pm the Fed’s beige Book, details from the 12 Fed districts. Fed officials today; Christopher Waller, John Williams, Michelle Bowman, Tom Barkin, Patrick Harker and Lisa Cook.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -20, NASDAQ -101, S&P -18. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.88% +4 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon -12 bps from yesterday’s close and -15 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

Source: TBWS

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