Weekly Jobless Claims decline to five week low

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Published Date 11/22/2023

Prior to 8:30 am ET data the 10 year note traded at 4.37% -2 bps, MBS prices unchanged from yesterday.

Data at 8:30 am; weekly jobless claims expected at 225K declined to 209K -24K from the prior week, a five-week low. The 4-week average 220.00K from 220.75K. Continuing jobless claims, for the number of people continuously receiving unemployment benefits, eased to 1.84 million 22K lower in the week of 11/11. Last week’s claims is what the monthly employment data is used to calculate November NFP jobs from the BLS when reported on December 8th.

October durable goods orders expected -3.4% declined 5.4%, ex-transportation orders expectations were +0.1% as reported 0.0%, core capital goods thought to be +0.2% declined 0.1%.

The initial reaction to the two releases sent the 10 year note from 4.37% to 4.41%. The stock indexes in futures trading traded a little better.

Crude oil falling this morning with the OPEC+ meeting that was scheduled for this weekend has been delayed. The delay came as talks stalled due to Saudi Arabia’s dissatisfaction with production levels by other members. Saudi Arabia in July implemented an additional, voluntary cut of 1 million barrels a day, which it has extended through the end of this year. The meeting is now set to take place November 30.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +115, NASDAQ +112, S&P +20. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.39% unchanged. 6.5 FNMA coupon at 9:30 am +1 bp from yesterday’s close and +16 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am the final November University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, expected at 60.5 from 60.4 two weeks ago, the sentiment index increased to 61.3 the best since last May but comparing to October consumers continue to be concerned.

Trading volume in US financial markets will slow by noon, Friday will be even less as most take the long weekend off. There is nothing scheduled now until next week, the wild card may be what happens in the mid-east, according to the news a cease fire between Hamas and Israel is now scheduled to begin tomorrow and last over four days.

Source: TBWS

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