Springtime 2024 is arriving early in some U.S. housing markets

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Published Date 3/4/2024

Ever heard that joke about how you can buy a 5-course steak dinner in Podunk for $9.99, but when you wake up in the morning, you’re still in Podunk? (Apologies if the town you live in is actually named Podunk.)

Such is the nature of buying homes in these here United States. Like when the February groundhog talks to us in his buck toothed little way, housing numbers poke their heads up every spring. According to Realtor.com’s Evan Wyloge, housing typically follows a seasonal pattern, hibernating during the colder months and heating up as temperatures rise. This explains why many homebuyers dive into the market right as summer begins.

This year, however, that seasonal awakening seems to be happening a bit earlier than usual. “Certain parts of the country are already on the brink of an early bloom this spring,” says Wyloge. Of course, the data tells us everything.

Wyloge inspected listing data from the past several years to find markets that see a surge in homes for sale earlier than the rest of the country: in March, April, and May. Then, from among the 150 largest metro areas, he compared the inventory in these three months with their annual low and high points, selecting the metros where these spring months are relatively the strongest. He discovered several metro areas that defy the national trend and start springing into action as early as March—right when inventory in the rest of the country is at its lowest point of the year, also indicating just what you might get for your money in 2024.

While you might think it’s Sun Belt cities where buyers and sellers get an early start, he was rather surprised to find markets in the Northeast where the inventory wave starts early—including Philadelphia and New York City—challenging assumptions that warm weather is required to get markets moving. Well, okay — Tallahassee, FL, and San Jose, CA, stand out as early winners for poking their heads out of the ground. But the same is somewhat true for New York City.

“In markets such as Salisbury, MD, and Los Angeles—an unlikely pair of markets to be sure—it's the stability of the inventory that makes spring a relatively active part of the year,” says Wyloge. ‘Salisbury shows a steady increase through spring, while Los Angeles, despite a shallower rise, sees a significant dip in December.”

Wyloge says buyers should think about inventory as a "two-humped camel” with a bigger hump in the spring. The first "hump" is when sellers enter the market and list their homes, when inventory is rising in anticipation of more demand. The second comes later in the year when inventory is rising because of less demand and homes are stacking up in the market. Well. Let’s hope that happens anyway, since inventory has been at all-time lows recently.

Interested in all those early spring price differential snapshots we spoke of earlier? According to Realtor, here goes:

In Tallahassee, FL, a four-bedroom, two-bathroom house is listed for $279,000, with median list prices hovering around $313,525.
San Jose, CA offers a 1,844-square-foot home listed for $1,250,000. The median list price there is $1,288,250.
Los Angeles, CA lists a four-bedroom two bath home for $950,000, with median listing prices at $1,100,000.
If Bridgeport, CT is your stomping ground, try $365,000 for a 1,248-square-foot home where median list prices are around $805,950.
Big Apple? A newly-built one-bedroom, one-bathroom condo in New York City is listed for $700,000, where the median list price is $741,500.
If Billy Joel’s Allentown suits you, you can buy a five-bedroom townhouse for $280,000. Median list price there is $369,575.
Philadelphia, PA boasts a newly renovated townhouse for $240,000, where the median list price is $337,375.
And in Salisbury, MD, a six-bedroom, four-bathroom Queen Ann Victorian home is listed for $500,000, while the median list price hovers at $484,250.

Now. About that steak dinner…

Realtor, TBWS

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