Published Date 3/6/2024
Over night the 10 year note increased 2 bps to 4.17%, by 8:15 am ET the note down 1 bps. ADP reported February private jobs at +140K against forecasts of 150K, an increase of 29K jobs from the prior week.
Powell begins his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee at 10 am. His prepared text saying it will likely be appropriate to begin lower borrowing costs “at some point this year,” but made clear they’re not ready yet. Stepping back, Powell is not likely to change his recent remarks that he wants more data before pulling the trigger to begin dialing back rates. The present consensus is the first rate cut will happen at the June FOMC meeting, but there are many new inflation releases between now and then.
The March FOMC meeting on March 20th will release the Fed’s quarterly updates on inflation, employment, and economic outlook.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +189, NASDAQ +158, S&P +34. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.12% -23 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +13 bps from yesterday’s close and +18 bps from 9:30 am yesterday. Stock indexes refuse to buckle, more analysts worrying about being excessive. There is an interesting pattern recently; yesterday the indexes declined (DJIA -405, NASDAQ -268, S&P -52), every time we see a big fall in the indexes the following day has been a strong up day.
At 10 am January JOLTS job openings were expected to have declined to 8.90 million from revised 8.889 million (originally 9.026 million). Openings reported at 8.863 million. No immediate reaction, but less openings is a plus for rates, employers not hiring as much.
At 2 pm the Fed’s Beige Book, not likely to have impact after Powell’s comments.
The benchmark 10 year note continues to decline, good news for rates. The note now trading below its 200 day average, the 20 and 40 day averages. The relative strength index is in positive territory, below the 50 pivot.
Source: TBWS
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
Superior Funding Corporation is a Massachusetts Mortgage Company. Massachusetts Mortgage Lender and Broker License: MC2972, NMLS ID: 2972.
NMLS: 11481
Superior Funding Corporation
343 Washington Street, Newton MA
Company NMLS: 2972
Office: 617-938-3900
Email: rshulman@sfcorp.net
Web: http://sfcorp.net
NMLS: 11481
9/25/2024
At 8:30 am ET this morning the 10 year note at 3.76% +3 bp, MBS prices down...... view more
9/23/2024
In a remarkable turn of events, the US housing market has witnessed a dramatic i... view more
9/18/2024
This afternoon is the widely anticipated FOMC rate cut. It will be the first cut... view more
9/16/2024
As the real estate market continues to challenge buyers with high prices and hef... view more
9/11/2024
August CPI about as expected; month/month +0.2% unch from July, year/year +2.5% ... view more
9/9/2024
As the summer housing market winds down, a new landscape is emerging for both bu... view more
9/4/2024
The 10 year note fell 8 bps, the 2 year note -6 bps; MBS prices gained...... view more
8/28/2024
Today started unchanged in markets, yesterday also essentially unchanged. The fo... view more
8/26/2024
The U.S. housing market has been on a wild ride in 2024...... view more
8/21/2024
The key data today is the revision from the BLS of job growth...... view more