Bank of Japan surprised markets by increasing bond purchases overnight

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Published Date 12/20/2022

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -34 bps yesterday. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Housing: November Housing Starts were higher than expected, 1.427M vs. est. of 1.415M on an annualized basis. Single-Family starts were down -4.1% from 863K to 828K SAAR, which is the lowest since May 2020. Multi-Family starts rose 4.8% from 557K to 584K, highest since April 2022. Building Permits fell short, 1.342M vs. est. of 1.470M and a steep decline from October's pace of 1.513M and is the biggest MOM drop since the Covid lockdowns.

Central Banks: The People's Bank of China kept their key interest rate at 3.65%. The Bank of Japan also kept their interest rate unchanged at -0.1% but decided to modify its so-called Yield Curve Control framework and increase the quantity of government bonds it will buy each month.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets have been trending towards higher rates. Volatility has started high with markets roiling on the Bank of Japan news.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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