Three things that can impact rates this week

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Published Date 1/3/2023

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Lower

Mortgage rates are moving a little lower today. The MBS market worsened by -29 bps last week. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility last week.

This week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Jobs, 2) The Fed and 3) Geopolitical

1) Jobs: We have Big Jobs Friday this week with Non Farm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate and most importantly, Average Hourly Earnings. Throughout the week we have JOLTS, ADP Payrolls, Challenger Job Cuts, Initial Weekly Jobless Claims and internal employment readings in ISM. The bond market will be very sensitive to the data all week long.

2) The Fed: We get the Minutes from the last FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The bond market will be looking for more background/discussion on their economic projections, and their hawkish statement.

3) Geopolitical: We are seeing more volatility and more of a response in long bonds to the Ukraine war as concerns are increasing over Russian casualties on Russian soil due to attacks launched from Ukraine using American supplied weapons which heightens the potential of direct conflict between the U.S. and Russia. China's reopening and potential global economic upside vs. their massive spike of Covid is also a big concern.

This week's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are leaning lower. Volatility has started high with traders returning to regular working hours.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Wymac Capital, Inc.

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