ADP jobs data better than expected

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Published Date 1/5/2023

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Higher

Mortgage rates are moving higher today. The MBS market improved by +23 bps yesterday. This may have been enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: December Challenger Job Cuts dropped significantly from 77K down to 44K. The December ADP Employment Change was much stronger than expected, 235K vs. est. of 150K and a big jump from November's 127K. Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lower than expected, 204K vs. est. of 225K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average dropped to 214K. Continuing Claims dipped back below 1.7M at 1.694M.

Trade Balance: The November data was much stronger than expected with a deficit of only $-61.51B vs. est. of $-74.0B which would signal a stronger 4th QTR GDP if the shrinkage was due to exports. But it was not, it was a huge fall off in Imports which signals a slowing economy in the U.S.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are under pressure due to the ADP jobs data. Volatility has started at moderate to high levels ahead of tomorrow jobs report.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Wymac Capital, Inc.

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